3/30/2023 0 Comments World war 3 possibilityI can only think of two which are strong enough candidates: religious rivalry and climate change. Rather one should look at the conditions precedent which would make a nation overlook the principle of mutually assured destruction: if you nuke me, I’ll nuke you so let’s be sensible and not nuke each other. In retrospect, triggers (or proximate causes) are pretty arbitrary and unpredictable: so there is no point in pondering on the actual event that could precipitate World War III. The trigger was the invasion of Poland by Germany at the beginning of September 1939. The conditions precedent to World War II were the harsh conditions imposed on Germany by the Treaty of Versailles in June 1919 and the rise of Adolph Hitler during the 1920s. The condition precedent to World War I was the imperialistic ambitions of the great powers of Europe while the trigger was the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian throne, in June 1914. The next thing to consider is what would cause it. Indeed, World War III could be relatively short compared to its two predecessors. Destruction would be on a scale that has never been seen before in the history of mankind. Every missile has multiple warheads, each with an ability to knock out a medium-sized city. Nuclear weapons are far more devastating now than the ones dropped on Japan at the end of the last world war. Given that estimates of military and civilian deaths caused by World War II range from 50 to 70 million and global population has more than doubled since 1945, the body count from World War III could easily exceed a quarter of a billion people. Maximum force to win is the rule of the game. ![]() Each side uses its complete portfolio of weapons including nukes and other weapons of mass destruction. The war has to be fought on several continents at the same time as was the case with World War II andģ. But the war has to start out as a fairly even contest, though some would argue that no combination can measure up to the awesome military might of America if it was prepared to go all the way with its nuclear arsenal Ģ. Plenty of other countries may also participate as allies on one side or the other and the combination of the great military powers may be different. For me that means America, Britain and Europe (Nato) on one side and Russia and China on the other. The war has to involve the great military powers on opposing sides. ![]() We have had plenty of wars around the planet since 1945, but none of them qualifies as a world war. Conscription lowers unemployment, defence industries boom and if there is a lot of destruction going on, infrastructure has to be replaced.īefore examining the type of scenario that might lead to an all-out global conflict, let’s define what one means by a world war. Equally, it’s a good excuse for reviving the economy if it is in recession. ![]() ![]() The alternative view is that war is built into our DNA and the air has to be cleared by a monumental fight every so often. This leads to an interesting debate as to whether the 20th century was an aberrant one when mankind went temporarily mad and such behaviour will not be repeated. Back: Articles and information on Clem Sunter The possibility of World War III By Clem SunterĪt several presentations that I have done on the long-term outlook for the world economy, I have been asked the following question at the end: why do you not include the possibility of a third world war? After all, the last century had two world wars.
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